Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007229 0.008149 0.009155 0.010339 0.011698 0.013213 0.015033
2024-10-06 0.005692 0.006917 0.008375 0.010247 0.012603 0.015488 0.019315
2024-10-13 0.005117 0.006540 0.008334 0.010781 0.014065 0.018364 0.024495
2024-10-20 0.004374 0.005809 0.007698 0.010398 0.014207 0.019467 0.027415
2024-10-27 0.003848 0.005280 0.007236 0.010145 0.014433 0.020636 0.030504
2024-11-03 0.003516 0.004969 0.007020 0.010185 0.015043 0.022383 0.034638
2024-11-10 0.003345 0.004861 0.007072 0.010603 0.016240 0.025128 0.040695
2024-11-17 0.003052 0.004540 0.006769 0.010437 0.016490 0.026390 0.044463
2024-11-24 0.002847 0.004330 0.006610 0.010471 0.017051 0.028202 0.049412
2024-12-01 0.002616 0.004056 0.006322 0.010258 0.017162 0.029243 0.053087
2024-12-08 0.002499 0.003954 0.006298 0.010477 0.018034 0.031712 0.059794
2024-12-15 0.002349 0.003784 0.006145 0.010456 0.018465 0.033415 0.065240
2024-12-22 0.002126 0.003481 0.005751 0.009986 0.018053 0.033539 0.067623
2024-12-29 0.001989 0.003314 0.005580 0.009908 0.018378 0.035151 0.073459
2025-01-05 0.001957 0.003326 0.005722 0.010421 0.019909 0.039379 0.085807
2025-01-12 0.001800 0.003101 0.005419 0.010052 0.019622 0.039781 0.089408
2025-01-19 0.001674 0.002926 0.005191 0.009809 0.019564 0.040663 0.094304
2025-01-26 0.001597 0.002833 0.005110 0.009847 0.020105 0.042934 0.103061
2025-02-02 0.001570 0.002832 0.005203 0.010250 0.021482 0.047299 0.118076
2025-02-09 0.001479 0.002702 0.005035 0.010090 0.021582 0.048670 0.125314
2025-02-16 0.001417 0.002623 0.004961 0.010122 0.022125 0.051186 0.136251
2025-02-23 0.001335 0.002499 0.004786 0.009918 0.022084 0.052233 0.143117
2025-03-02 0.001300 0.002467 0.004798 0.010129 0.023066 0.056040 0.159080